Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game 1 Tips & Predictions.

It’s the 2023 NBA Playoffs Finals and we’ve got Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Predictions, odds and tips at the ready. The Nuggets are the big favourites after a stellar postseason saw them sweep the Lakers to set up this final. 

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Winner

These two teams have faced each other 2 times this season and the Nuggets have won both encounters. In fact, the Miami Heat have lost their last 6 encounters against Denver and their last victory came in August 2020. They are 1-9 against Denver over the last 5 seasons.

The Miami Heat have had a historic playoff run this season, reaching the finals as the 8th seed and if they win the series, this feat would rival the legendary Dallas Mavericks’ 2011 run. However, all factors indicate that the Nuggets have this one in the bag. 

The Nuggets have more scorers, their ball movement is better and they are more consistent. They are 1st in net rating this postseason with +8.0, compared to Miami’s +4.6. The Nuggets are well-rested and playing on their home court where they are unbeaten this year in the playoffs, going 8-0. 

We expect the Denver Nuggets to come away with the victory here and are backing them at 1/4 odds at Bet9ja. We’ve got even more Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game 1 tips so feel free to read the rest of the article to get the rest. 

Handicap Predictions

The handicap is set at -8.5 points in Denver’s favour and most bettors are picking them to beat the spread. The reason behind this, apart from the Heat’s fatigue and home-court advantage, is that Denver have a much faster playing style. 

The Nuggets have averaged 87.0 field goal attempts over the last 5 games compared to the Heat’s 83.2. Although this isn’t a huge advantage, the Nuggets have a much more efficient offence with a rating of 123.3 over that same period, compared to the visitors’ 114.7. 

Given their huge offensive potency, as well as the already-mentioned advantages, we expect the Nuggets to score around 120 points tonight, which should be enough to cover the -8.5 point handicap. 

The selection is available at 5/6 odds at Bet9ja. It means that if Denver wins this match by 9 or more points, the bet wins. 

Total Points Scored Predictions

We expect the Denver Nuggets to try and run the Miami Heat out of the arena. Their biggest advantages will be their fresh legs and their offensive efficiency. This will force Eric Spoelstra to try and catch up, resulting in a higher scoring total.

Most betting sites have set the total points line at 219.5 points, but we expect it to get even higher as the game approaches. If the Nuggets can get to 120 points, we only need the Miami Heat to reach 100 to cash our bet. 

We start our predictions by backing the Over on 219.5 total points at 10/11 odds at Bet9ja. 

Prop Bets Predictions

Jimmy Butler has been the leader of this Miami Heat squad during this entire playoff run, but after suffering that ankle injury against the Bucks, his numbers have lowered down to earth again.

While his performances are still very good, it should be noted that Butler is still carrying that injury and it will definitely affect his ability to score. Also, the Nuggets have some great and physical defenders in Aaron Gordon, KCP and Bruce Brown, who will make Butler their main defensive focus.

We expect this series to be difficult for Jimmy, and we are taking the Under on 27.5 points at 8/11 odds at BetKing.  

Our Analysis of the Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game

The Denver Nuggets have been in superb form this postseason. Many pundits discounted them to win the title given their drop in form nearing the end of the regular season, but Mike Malone’s squad turned up the intensity and started rolling. 

The Denver Nuggets are 12-3 during this postseason and have made quick work of their opposition. Their only losses came on the road, one against the Minnesota Timberwolves and two against the Phoenix Suns. They swept the LA Lakers in the NBA Western Conference Finals and have had more than enough time to rest and recover. 

Despite their mediocre regular season, the Miami Heat still made the playoff through the play-in tournament and their results have been historic. The Heat took down the 1st, 2nd and 5th Eastern Conference seeds in the playoffs this year and their leading scorer is a player drafted with the 30th pick in the 2011 draft. 

Both teams have shown exactly why they belong in the finals this year, and it will be a treat to watch 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic face off against Jimmy Butler.   

Top Scorers Predictions for Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Nikola Jokic is the unquestioned leader for the Denver Nuggets and we can expect him to have the biggest impact on the game tonight. He is their leading scorer during this playoffs tournament with 30 points per game and we expect him to keep the points coming. 

Given the fact Jimmy Butler will be the focal point of Denver’s defence tonight, Caleb Martin will likely have to step up once again. He had 24 and 26 points in his last 2 games respectively and we see him as a solid candidate to be Miami’s top scorer. 

Ball Arena is a Fortress

The Denver Nuggets are known for their amazing play on their home court in recent decades. Pundits have often referred to the altitude as the main reason for their success, but it’s not just that. The Nuggets went 34-7 at home during the regular season and 8-0 in the playoffs. 

The Nuggets are heavily favoured to win Game 1 and the series by both bookmakers and bettors and for once, we agree with our predictions.  

Recent Results

The Denver Nuggets cruised through the playoffs in just 15 games and their last 4 were a sweep of the LA Lakers. They are in fantastic form and heading into Game 1 full of confidence. 

The Miami Heat stole the first 3 games against the Celtics despite being underdogs. But the Celtics mounted a historic comeback and evened out the series at 3-3. Game 7 was all Miami and Jimmy Butler lead them to the finals with a 28-points, 6 assists and 7 rebounds performance. 

Lakers 111-113 Nuggets

Lakers 108-103 Nuggets

Nuggets 108-103 Lakers

Nuggets 132-126 Lakers

Celtics 84-103 Heat

Heat 103-104 Celtics

Celtics 110-97 Heat

Heat 99-116 Celtics

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Nuggets Odds

The Denver Nuggets the heavy favourite here and are available at 1/4 to win Game 1 at Bet9ja and 2/9 to win the title at BetKing. The way they have been playing certainly justifies these odds, but it leaves little to no value in backing them in these markets. 

The Miami Heat are valued at 10/3 to win the game tonight at Bet9ja and at 10/3 to win the title at BetKing. They were huge underdogs heading into the series against the Celtics but this time it will be a miracle if they manage to make it out.